SHFE tin continues to fluctuate at highs, with expectations for US Fed interest rate cut continuing to ferment as the core support [SMM tin midday review]

At the midday session on August 8, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2509) closed at 268,020 yuan/mt, up approximately 490 yuan from the previous day's settlement price, representing a 0.18% increase. Prices fluctuated at highs during the day, with the trading range narrowing to 267,260-268,790 yuan/mt. Market sentiment was cautious, with downstream order volumes remaining low. Meanwhile, the LME tin contract pulled back slightly to around $33,720 in the early Asian session, reflecting overseas bullish sentiment being disrupted by both macro policies and inventory divergence.

From a macro perspective, the ongoing expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts have emerged as a key support. US non-farm payrolls data for July fell significantly short of expectations (with only 73,000 new jobs added), and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. The market's pricing for a September interest rate cut rose to 89%, and the weakening US dollar index pushed up tin prices denominated in US dollars. However, escalating geopolitical tariffs have curbed gains: the Trump administration imposed a 100% tariff on Chinese-imported chips (with exemptions for US-produced chips), directly impacting the global electronics industry chain—55% of tin consumption relies on electronic solder, and the policy has intensified downstream wait-and-see sentiment. Meanwhile, the US imposed a 25% surtax on India, heightening risk-aversion sentiment in the global supply chain. Domestically, the People's Bank of China conducted 700 billion yuan in 3-month reverse repo operations on August 8, maintaining a loose liquidity stance. However, the rally in the A-share semiconductor sector failed to effectively transmit to the SHFE tin spot market, with spot premiums remaining low, reflecting insufficient actual demand uptake.

In the afternoon, SHFE tin prices are expected to continue sideways movement within the 265,000-275,000 yuan range. Three key signals warrant close attention: first, whether there is a substantive rebound in Myanmar tin ore customs clearance volumes; second, the revised US non-farm payrolls data and the dynamics of US Fed governor nominations; and third, whether the domestic "September-October peak season" stockpiling cycle can commence ahead of schedule. Short-term strategy recommendations prioritize a wait-and-see approach, with aggressive investors advised to engage in light position swing trading within the range, avoiding chasing price rises or selling off amid declines.